The labour market statistics were published today by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency.

The labour market statistics were published today by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency.

Payrolled employees and monthly earnings recorded a decrease over the month

• The number of employees receiving pay through HMRC PAYE in NI in September 2022 was 780,800, a 0.1% decrease over the month and a 2.6% increase over the year. This was the first monthly decrease in over a year (since August 2021). 
• Earnings from the HMRC PAYE indicated that NI employees had a median monthly pay of Pound 1,944 in September 2022, a decrease of Pound 31 (1.6%) over the month and an increase of Pound 102 (5.5%) over the year. This was the largest monthly decrease in earnings in over a year.

First monthly increase in the claimant count number since February 2021

• In September 2022, the seasonally adjusted number of people on the claimant count was 35,900 (3.8% of the workforce), which was an increase of 1.3% from the previous month's revised figure.  This represents the first monthly increase in the claimant count since February 2021.  The September claimant count remains higher than the pre-pandemic count in March 2020 (by 20.6%).

Latest twelve-month totals of both proposed and confirmed redundancies remain low

• NISRA, acting on behalf of the Department for the Economy, received confirmation that 150 redundancies occurred in September 2022, taking the annual total to 1,100. 
• 190 redundancies were proposed in September 2022, following low or no redundancies in July and August.  Over the year October 2021 to September 2022, 1,410 redundancies were proposed.

Labour Force Survey (LFS) headline measures

• The latest NI seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (the proportion of economically active people aged 16 and over who were unemployed) for the period June-August 2022 was estimated from the Labour Force Survey at 3.0%.  This was an increase of 0.4 percentage points (pps) over the quarter and a decrease of 1.4pps over the year.  The annual change was statistically significant.
• The proportion of people aged 16 to 64 in work (the employment rate) decreased by 0.1pps over the quarter and increased by 0.9pps over the year to 69.9%.  Neither the quarterly nor annual changes were statistically significant.  The total number of weekly hours worked in NI (26.7 million) decreased by 4.5% over the quarter and increased by 1.2% over the year.
• The economic inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged 16 to 64 who were not working and not seeking or available to work) decreased by 0.2pps over the quarter and increased by 0.1pps over the year to 27.8%.  Neither the quarterly nor annual changes were statistically significant.

Commentary

• The latest labour market release shows that, whilst the majority of indicators continue to report improvements over the year, some indicators are showing a worsening position over the short-term.
• Notably all three administrative data sources point to a worsening labour market in the short term with 190 redundancies proposed in September following no or low redundancies over the summer months; the claimant count showing the first substantial increase since February 2021; and HMRC PAYE data showing the first monthly decrease in payrolled earnings, and the largest decrease in monthly earnings, in over a year.
• The latest HMRC payroll data showed that payrolled employee numbers are now 3.8% above those recorded in March 2020 pre-COVID and 2.6% higher than September 2021. Payroll earnings are now 11.4% above pre-COVID level, however this was the lowest increase of all twelve UK regions.
• The claimant count estimate increased over the month to September 2022 from the revised estimate for August 2022.  The claimant count rate, however, has remained at 3.8% for the fifth consecutive month.
• The Labour Force Survey (LFS) shows a statistically significant decrease in the unemployment rate over the year to June-August 2022 to 3.0%.  When compared to pre-pandemic levels in December-February 2020, the total number of hours worked in June-August 2022 was 7.0% below, whilst the employment rate was 2.5pps below.  The economic inactivity rate remains 2.2pps above the pre-pandemic position and the unemployment rate is 0.5pps above the pre-pandemic period.