PARIS/NEW YORK: Luxury brands are walking a tightrope in the U.S. after fresh tariffs threatened to squeeze profits at a time when shoppers are already balking at sky-high price tags.

A trade deal between U.S. President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has imposed a 15% tariff on EU goods, avoiding the feared 30% levy, but still far from the zero-tariff scenario the EU had hoped for. The U.S. remains a critical market for European luxury as growth slows in China and global sales decline.

"Tariffs are definitely going to affect my buying behaviour, depending on the rate of the tariff. I would think twice before I just pick things up," said Abida Taher, a 53-year-old physician browsing at Saks Fifth Avenue in New York. She favors Italian and French labels like Valentino.

Luxury giants like Chanel, Dior, and Louis Vuitton, brands that powered profit growth through aggressive price hikes, are now grappling with whether they can push prices any further without alienating customers.

"Brands are treading carefully with further price hikes to avoid alienating younger and occasional shoppers," said Jacques Roizen, managing director, China, at Digital Luxury Group.

According to UBS, prices for iconic products like Chanel's classic quilted flap bag have more than tripled between 2015 and 2024. Lady Dior and the Louis Vuitton Keepall travel bag more than doubled.

UBS estimates that a 15% U.S. tariff would require a 2% price increase in the U.S. (or 1% globally) to avoid regional price gaps, or risk a 3% hit to earnings before interest and tax. For an industry already struggling with price fatigue, that's a tough ask.

Half of the luxury sector's sales growth between 2019 and 2023 came from price increases, compared to a third in the seven years prior, UBS said. But in 2024, the industry lost 50 million customers, per consultancy Bain, as inflation and economic uncertainty soured demand.

"The significant deceleration in momentum, uneven as it was, is a natural consequence of a period of excess," said Flavio Cereda, who manages GAM's Luxury Brands investment strategy.

In contrast, Hermes, one of the few major labels that held off on drastic price hikes, has been rewarded. Analysts expect the French house to report a 10% rise in Q2 sales this week.

To ease trade tensions, LVMH CEO Bernard Arnault has lobbied EU leaders and announced plans for a new Louis Vuitton factory in Texas. But moving manufacturing to the U.S. isn't feasible for most brands due to the years it takes to train artisans.

At Saks in Manhattan, 37-year-old therapist Precious Buckner eyed a Chanel flap bag but balked at the price. "If it goes up in price because of tariffs it would no longer be worth it," she said. She prefers to check bags in-store, then buy them for less on resale platforms like The RealReal.

Bain predicts global luxury goods sales will fall 2% to 5% in 2025, on top of a 1% drop last year, the worst slump in 15 years outside the pandemic.

To win back customers, major houses including Chanel, Dior, Gucci and Versace are appointing new designers. But according to Pictet's Caroline Reyl, it will take time to bridge the gap between prices and perceived value.

"You can't snap your fingers and do it in a couple of weeks," she said.